Indian economy to expand by more than 18% in April-June – report

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase by around 18.5% in the three months through June, according to the latest research revealed by the State Bank of India (SBI).

Growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, which starts on April 1 in India, is mainly attributed to a low base performance in the previous quarter due to the coronavirus pandemic. 

The report also projects that the gross value added (GVA) will be 15% in the indicated period. The analysts noted that the corporate reports posted so far reveal a substantial recovery in corporate GVA, which comprises earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization added to employee cost in the first quarter of the current financial year.

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State Bank of India has developed the ‘Nowcasting Model’ with 41 high-frequency indicators associated with industrial activity, service activity, and the global economy. 

According to the report, the corporate GVA of 4,069 corporations registered a growth of 28.4%, lower than growth recorded in the previous quarter, thereby corroborating a lower GDP estimate than was earlier thought.

The Mumbai-based multinational downgraded its earlier forecast of 21.4% growth for the period.

Meanwhile, the business activity index demonstrated further growth in August, with the latest reading for the week ended August 16, 2021, at 103.3, the report added.

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