US planemaker Boeing has upgraded its long-term demand forecasts on the expectation that domestic travel will recover to pre-Covid crisis levels in 2022 and international flying will rebound in 2024.
The aerospace giant expects 43,610 commercial jet deliveries over the next 20 years, worth $7.2 trillion. That’s an increase of 500 units from the 43,110 projected a year ago. In its shorter 10-year view, which is more sensitive to the severe fallout for airlines from the coronavirus pandemic, Boeing sees 19,330 deliveries, up from last year’s forecast of 18,350.
“One of the strongest reasons for confidence is how quickly we have seen a bounce-back in domestic travel in the last 12 months,” said Marc Allen, Boeing’s chief strategy officer. Over the next decade, Boeing sees demand for $9 trillion of goods and services in all of the markets it operates.
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The forecast for defense and space sectors is flat at $2.6 trillion. The company slightly increased its 20-year forecast for deliveries of twin-aisle models like its 787 Dreamliner to 7,670 jets. The segment remains the hardest hit by the coronavirus crisis, with analysts still seeing uncertainty due to new Covid-19 variants.
As for medium-haul single-aisle jets, like the 737 MAX, Boeing sees 32,660 deliveries over the next 20 years, up from the previous 32,270.The company cut its 20-year forecast for freighter demand to 890 jets from the 930 it projected a year ago.
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